Election-year wild card: Blue state gerrymandering

If Democrats manage to hang on to their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after this fall’s midterm elections, it will be because of places like Glens Falls, New York.

Dubbed “hometown, U.S.A.” by Look magazine in 1944, Glens Falls has for years been a small spot of blue in a mostly red Adirondack district. But under a new map passed last month by New York Democrats, it will become part of a newly redrawn Democratic-tilting district based in Albany, which now snakes an arm up Interstate 87 to grab the quaint town of 14,000.

Critics are calling the New York congressional map, which has been signed into law by the governor, one of the most blatant gerrymanders in the country. It could potentially take the state’s eight Republican House members down to as few as four.

On Thursday evening, a Republican state court judge in Western New York agreed. The judge tossed the map, writing that it showed clear political bias, adding: “in a democracy it is rare if ever that one party has all the right answers.”

But experts say the Democrats’ New York map may well be preserved on appeal, at least for the current cycle. And New York isn’t the only blue state with warped lines. After years of decrying partisan gerrymandering and pushing for legislation to outlaw the practice, Democrats in states from Illinois to Maryland to Oregon have passed congressional maps that attempt to shore up their own incumbents and eliminate GOP seats. Having had little say in the last redistricting cycle a decade ago, thanks to the shellacking it took in the 2010 elections, the party has taken advantage of more recent electoral gains to go on offense, aggressively redrawing district lines in certain states in its own favor.

Republicans have produced equally gerrymandered maps elsewhere, in states from Texas to Florida. At the same time, a growing number of states have turned to independent commissions or courts to produce their maps. The result is a national playing field that, on paper at least, increasingly looks something like a draw. Although a few states’ maps are still being debated and court challenges are ongoing, the overall House map now appears almost evenly balanced between Democrat- and Republican-leaning districts for the first time in decades.

Some analysts say Democrats had little choice but to be aggressive where they could – unless they wanted to unilaterally disarm, since Republicans have steadfastly opposed redistricting reform proposals at the federal level.

“Do [Democrats] impose redistricting rules on themselves? Or do they try to do what Republicans are doing in some states?” asks Seth Masket, a University of Denver political scientist.

Still, Republicans are raising cries of hypocrisy.

“Anytime you accuse your opponents of doing something, and then turn around and do the exact same thing, you’re a hypocrite,” says John Feehery, a Republican strategist based in Washington.

The battle for seats

At the outset of this year’s reapportionment, Republicans had appeared poised to gain as many as 10 seats nationwide from the process. But several GOP maps, such as in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, have been overthrown by courts.

Democratic maps are also facing legal challenges – which could potentially restore Republicans’ edge. Days before New York’s map was tossed, Maryland’s map was rejected by a state court as well. Only one seat likely hangs in the balance for Democrats in Maryland; New York is a far bigger prize. But not everyone is convinced the Empire State’s map is doomed.

Courts in New York have historically been loath to intervene in political fights – and all the justices on the state’s highest court were appointed by Democratic governors, noted Shawn Donahue, a University of Buffalo redistricting expert, before the New York ruling came out. He’s skeptical Republicans can win the appeals that are sure to follow the ruling.  

Many Democrats see this year’s efforts as a necessary corrective, after the last round of redistricting gave Republicans a significant structural edge. In 2012, Republican gerrymanders helped the GOP maintain control of the House by a 33-seat margin, despite receiving 1.4 million fewer votes for the House overall.

Of course, rejiggering lines can only accomplish so much. Most polls indicate Republicans will have a strong advantage heading into this fall’s midterm elections, given concerns about inflation and President Joe Biden’s weak poll numbers, which could tip swing districts as well as weaker Democratic ones to the GOP.

And some Democrats reject the idea that their party is relying on gerrymandering to try to offset the political head winds.

“Democrats are drawing maps that reflect the census and the population growth,” says John Bisognano, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which was formed after the last round of redistricting by former Attorney General Eric Holder to guide the Democrats’ efforts nationwide. In a statement to the Monitor, Mr. Bisognano points to states that lost congressional seats because of population declines in rural, Republican areas. New maps ought to reflect that shift, he says.

Others seem more conflicted, however. When a Nashville Scene reporter asked retiring Tennessee Rep. Jim Cooper, a moderate Democrat, about the New York map, he responded, “Are you asking me to be proud of ‘an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth’?” 

Of course, many feel the GOP is taking eyes and teeth of its own – including eliminating Mr. Cooper’s Democratic Nashville district, splitting it up between three rural Republican ones. 

New York’s mapmaking was originally supposed to be handled by a bipartisan commission, approved by voters in 2014. But as in several other states, the commission deadlocked, sending the process to the state Legislature, where Democrats have gained a supermajority in recent years. 

The resulting map cuts the number of congressional districts where former President Donald Trump would have won from seven out of 27 to four out of 26 – in a state where 37% of voters overall pulled the lever for the former president. That has raised eyebrows even outside the ranks of Republicans. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project, a nonpartisan research center, gave the New York map an F grade.

“It’s an outrageous, blatant, partisan gerrymander that is clearly contrary to our state constitution,” says former GOP Rep. John Faso, who is leading a lawsuit against the map in state court. An amendment passed by New York voters in 2014 prohibits districts drawn “to discourage competition” or to favor “particular candidates or political parties.” The state judge relied, in part, on that amendment in striking down the map on Thursday.

A coffee shop debate

Critics argue the New York map also fails a “compactness” test, prioritizing partisanship over geography – and ignoring the ways in which local concerns often unite communities more than national politics.

Sitting in SPoT Coffee, next to the old First National Bank building in Glens Falls, Michael Borgos – chairman of the Republican Party committee in Glens Falls – argues that grouping his small town with Albany will just make it “a little fish in a big pond.”

Current GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik’s district office is just a short walk away, he notes. To local townsfolk – whether they love or loathe her – she’s just “Elise.” A Democrat representing a safe, Albany-based district, Mr. Borgos predicts, won’t give Glens Falls the same kind of attention.

Moreover, the town has been historically and culturally tied to parts north, as the gateway to the Adirondacks, he says. “So to separate us, from a political standpoint, doesn’t make any sense.”  

“I disagree,” Lynne Boecher cuts in from across the table. The chair of the Warren County Democratic Party, Ms. Boecher contends Glens Falls faces many of the same challenges that the state capital does, like poverty and housing affordability. The town, which voted for Mr. Biden by 23 points in 2020, has far more in common politically with Albany than with the heavily Republican Adirondacks, she says.

Ms. Boecher and Mr. Borgos, often at odds on issues, know each other well. Mr. Borgos is a high school friend of Ms. Boecher’s son.

While they disagree about the new map, there’s one thing they do agree on – they’d likely be able to hash out better lines than the powers that be in Albany.

“Michael and I could probably sit down and draw the 21st and the 20th [districts],” Ms. Boecher quips.

“There you go,” Mr. Borgos chimes in. “Call Albany, tell them we’ll figure it out.”

Editor’s Note: This story was updated to reflect the ruling by a New York state court judge on Thursday evening throwing out the state’s new map.