2020
September
25
Friday

Monitor Daily Podcast

September 25, 2020
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Peter Grier
Washington editor

President Donald Trump won’t commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. He’s said that over and over in recent days, so it’s not a slip of the tongue.

Given that, how worried should voters be about the state of democracy in America

First, some background. President Trump’s reason for his stance isn’t based on evidence.

Study after study has shown voting fraud isn’t a problem at the federal level. Mr. Trump’s own FBI director, Christopher Wray, told the Senate that just days ago.

“We have not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it’s by mail or otherwise,” Mr. Wray said.

Yet Mr. Trump insists that 2020 voting will be a “big scam” because of a rise in mail-in ballots due to the pandemic.

Second, there are weaknesses in the system the president could exploit. What if he leads in key states on Election Day, then Democratic mail-in votes begin to erode his margin? Baseless charges of fraud and attempts to shut down counting could cause a national political crisis.

But third, the odds are against this. If election trends are clear relatively early in the counting process there is much less chance that Republicans – or Democrats – could overturn a result by resorting to the courts or trying to appoint their own Electoral College electors, or some other questionable maneuver.

The “hanging chad” Florida election of 2000 was an aberration. The chance that 2020 hinges on a recount, with candidates only half a percentage point apart in one or more decisive states, is only 5%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model.

“The overwhelmingly likely outcome in November is that the winner will be recognized in short order and the margin will be great enough so that none of the loser’s fulminations will matter,” writes Daniel Drezner, professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, in The Washington Post.


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Today’s stories

And why we wrote them

Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff
Founder Marissa Goldstein of Rafi Nova displays a Hmong skirt and wears a mask made of fabric handmade by Hmong women in Vietnam, on Sept. 24, 2020, in Needham, Massachusetts. The startup has now made 2 million masks to sell, while donating 100,000 to front-line workers and others in need.

Many businesses now struggle near the brink of bankruptcy, yet a surprising countertrend is visible: a faster pace of new-business formation than last year. History suggests that some of these employers may become long-term success stories.

The United Nations is multilateralism institutionalized. Its annual General Assembly is one place global issues of common concern are tackled. Normally. What happens to such efforts in a pandemic? What is left?

There’s a different side to Portland protests than shown on TV. Our reporter joined a twice-weekly peaceful protest caravan organized by the grandmother of a teenager killed by police.

Courtesy of the Field Museum
“Wherein Lies the Beauty of Life,” by contemporary artist Ben Pease, portrays an Apsáalooke woman in a traditional dress covered with elk teeth, holding her baby. Mr. Pease uses flowers to represent divinity and beauty.

Understanding women’s roles in Indigenous society can help draw a line from the past to the present. An exhibition in Chicago features the contributions of Crow, or Apsáalooke, women and proclaims: We are still here

JN Phillips
A white-crowned sparrow sits near the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco. During the lockdown, traffic in the city dwindled to levels not seen since the 1950s.

The pandemic has forced a huge swath of humanity to drastically change daily routines. It turns out that nonhuman animals, too, are shifting their behavior.


The Monitor's View

In a surprise move this week, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte reversed course and called out China for violating international law. He criticized it for not honoring a ruling by a United Nations arbitration panel that invalidated China’s vast territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The 2016 ruling, said Mr. Duterte in a video speech during the U.N. General Assembly, stood for “the triumph of reason over rashness, of law over disorder, of amity over ambition.”

Other Southeast Asian nations have lately rebuked China for intruding on their territorial waters and violating the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. In mid-September, Indonesia protested the intrusion of a Chinese coast guard ship in its exclusive economic zone. In July, Malaysia asserted that China’s maritime claims hundreds of miles from its shores have no basis under international law. Vietnam, a frequent victim of Chinese maritime harassment, has even hinted at defense cooperation with its former foe, the United States.

These call-outs follow a U.S. decision in July to back the U.N. ruling. The Trump administration also imposed sanctions on 24 Chinese companies that helped Beijing build artificial islands in disputed waters since 2013.

All these actions come as China has aggressively pushed its territorial claims over Taiwan, the Himalayas, and Hong Kong. The pushback by Southeast Asians, notably the Philippines, reflects a collective effort to end a fear of Chinese threats and bullying and replace it with an affirmation of rules and law.

“This isn’t a region that’s going to be subject to a Chinese Monroe doctrine,” said Alexander Downer, a former foreign minister of Australia.

The U.N. ruling, Mr. Duterte said in his talk, is now part of international law and beyond the reach of any government “to dilute, diminish, or abandon.” That embrace of agreed principles in law may be the best defense against the use of brute force by China to extend its borders.


A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

When a colleague’s recurring verbal attacks soured the work environment for himself and others, a stage manager turned to the Bible for help. As he learned more about what it means that God is Love, the situation turned around dramatically.


A message of love

Chip Somodevilla/AP
The flag-draped casket of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is carried in to Statuary Hall to lie in state Sept. 25, 2020, in Washington. The late justice is the first woman and first Jewish American to receive that honor. More than 100 of her law clerks have stood guard over her casket as honorary pallbearers.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Karen Norris. )

A look ahead

Come back Monday, when we’ll have a profile of Joe Biden by our Washington bureau chief, Linda Feldmann. Is not being Donald Trump enough to win?

More issues

2020
September
25
Friday

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