Every convention promises victory. This year, Republicans feel it.
| Milwaukee
Along with the red sequins and cowboy hats, something just as ubiquitous is on display at this year’s Republican National Convention: confidence.
The GOP hasn’t won the U.S. popular vote in two decades. Its last winning presidential candidate – former President Donald Trump – eked out a 2016 Electoral College victory that surprised even his own team. In 2020, President Joe Biden held a steady polling lead from Super Tuesday to Election Day.
Why We Wrote This
After a year in which former President Donald Trump faced prolonged legal battles, and GOP divisions wreaked havoc in Congress, Republicans are reveling in a remarkable sense of unity.
But now, not only is Mr. Trump ahead in national polling, but he also holds clear leads in the top swing states. His legal situation – despite a conviction in the New York hush money case – has taken a markedly favorable turn. And following Mr. Biden’s dismal June debate performance, and then Saturday’s failed assassination attempt on Mr. Trump, many strategists are predicting a GOP sweep of Congress as well as the White House.
While conventions always trumpet hope, this time it seems more real.
“It feels very different,” GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina tells the Monitor. “I’ve been to each of the last five conventions, and this is the first one where you really see a pep in everybody’s step.”
Along with the red sequins and cowboy hats, something just as ubiquitous is on display at this year’s Republican National Convention: confidence.
For the first time in decades, Republicans are in the unfamiliar position of holding a clear lead as they head into the fall general election campaign. There’s a sense of jubilation in the air, bordering on giddiness. Some are even daring to invoke the “L” word – as in “landslide.”
The GOP hasn’t won the U.S. popular vote in two decades. Its last winning presidential candidate – former President Donald Trump – eked out a 2016 Electoral College victory that surprised even his own team, since he’d trailed in the polls all year. In 2020, President Joe Biden held a steady polling lead from Super Tuesday to Election Day. In fact, it’s been 20 years since Republicans have gone into their nominating convention ahead in the polls.
Why We Wrote This
After a year in which former President Donald Trump faced prolonged legal battles, and GOP divisions wreaked havoc in Congress, Republicans are reveling in a remarkable sense of unity.
As recently as 2022, many strategists were writing Mr. Trump’s political obituary, blaming him for the party’s underperformance in the midterm elections and fretting about his criminal indictments and spiraling legal woes.
But now, not only is Mr. Trump ahead in nearly all national polling, but he also holds clear leads in the seven top swing states. His legal situation – despite a conviction in the New York hush money case – has taken a markedly favorable turn, with bigger cases delayed or dismissed. And following Mr. Biden’s dismal June debate performance, which led to frantic calls from many Democrats for a new candidate to nominate, and then Saturday’s failed assassination attempt on Mr. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, GOP strategists are eyeing an even bigger map. At a breakfast Tuesday morning, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio suggested the blue states of Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico are also now in play.
Some Republicans can hardly get their heads around it all.
“It feels very different,” GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina tells the Monitor. “I’ve been to each of the last five conventions, and this is the first one where you really see a pep in everybody’s step.”
Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump who has worked for the former president since 2016, says he’s felt confident in all of Mr. Trump’s presidential campaigns. Still, he acknowledges there’s something different this time around.
“You obviously have the standing in the polls. You have a united party for Republicans. You have a divided Democratic Party in pure chaos on their side. And also, you have the historical significance that we’re less than 96 hours removed from an assassination attempt,” says Mr. Miller. “It’s really something.”
Of course, the electricity of potential is always in the air at conventions, no matter what the polls say. Every four years, thousands of delegates, party operatives, and elected officials descend on one city for a weeklong pump-up session.
“In all conventions, you’re gonna feel like there’s always hope,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota tells the Monitor.
But this time, it feels more real.
“With everything that’s going on both here at home and around the world, I think people are really looking for change,” Senator Thune says, adding that he can’t recall this degree of confidence at a convention since 2004. The vibes have been so good, he adds, that his main worry now is complacency. “We got to keep our heads down and do the work between now and Election Day. ... It seems like there’s a bit of a tail wind building, but we can’t let up.”
On the financial side, too, Republicans seem to be riding high. After trailing Democrats in fundraising for much of the cycle, the Trump campaign outraised Mr. Biden in this year’s second quarter by over 20%. This week, tech leaders donated millions to a Trump super PAC, and billionaire Elon Musk has reportedly committed to donating $45 million a month.
The convention opened Monday with a stunningly positive development for the former president – news that a Florida judge had dismissed the federal case against him for mishandling classified documents. Although the Justice Department’s special counsel Jack Smith has appealed, it’s now all but assured that Mr. Trump won’t see another courtroom before Election Day.
At the heart of Republicans’ good mood is a rare sense of party unity – something the GOP hasn’t exhibited to this extent since the Bush presidency. After pointedly telling GOP delegates to “vote your conscience” in 2016, for example, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas opened his remarks Tuesday night with “God bless Donald Trump.” And Mr. Trump’s main primary opponents this cycle, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, offered their own resoundingly supportive speeches. Ms. Haley, who had thus far declined to officially endorse Mr. Trump, did so Tuesday evening.
“The Democrats couldn’t stop him. The media couldn’t stop him. The liberal judges couldn’t stop him,” said Sen. Rick Scott of Florida in his floor speech Tuesday evening. “A bullet from a madman couldn’t stop him. Can anything stop Donald Trump from becoming the next president and making America great again?”
Leaning into this moment, Mr. Trump has entered the arena each evening to a standing ovation from the crowd. Wearing a bandage on his right ear where the bullet grazed his head, he appeared visibly emotional, his eyes seemingly welling with tears Monday evening at his first post-shooting appearance.
“It’s a Trump we’ve never seen before,” says Linda Mowrey, who is attending the convention with her husband, Mark Mowrey, a delegate from Kansas. Between the two of them, they have been delegates or alternate delegates for the last four conventions.
“There’s renewed enthusiasm this year,” she says. In the wake of the terrible shooting last Saturday, she notes, the whole party seemed to rapidly come together, making the energy in Milwaukee “a whole new thing.”
“The candidate on the other side seems to be really, really weak this time,” adds Mr. Mowrey. “Obviously Hillary Clinton had some issues with Republicans, but she was in good standing with Democrats. She seemed like a pretty formidable opponent. ... But this time, for all the world, it doesn’t seem like Joe Biden has the capability of being the president of the United States.”
Back in Washington, the drumbeat of frustration among Democrats has continued to build. On Wednesday, California Rep. Adam Schiff, who will likely be the state’s next senator in November, called on Mr. Biden to drop out of the race. And a new Associated Press poll found that 65% of Democrats want Mr. Biden to withdraw.
With Mr. Biden’s stumbles and Mr. Trump’s ascendance, Republicans are feeling optimistic about more than just the White House. Many are anticipating a full sweep in November.
Mr. Tillis of North Carolina says he’s always felt that his party was in “great shape” to take back the Senate, where Democrats currently have a one-seat majority but are facing a difficult map this cycle. But after this convention, Mr. Tillis says he’s “feeling more optimistic about [holding on to] the House,” as well.
The convention will culminate with a highly anticipated speech from Mr. Trump. During an area walk-through to prepare him for his closing remarks the following evening, he stood behind the podium Wednesday afternoon, flanked by advisers. As he looked out onto the arena’s empty red carpet, with thousands of red, white, and blue balloons suspended on catwalks above, staffers pointed to the teleprompters where he will soon read his speech.
As a placeholder, the first sentence of Republican President Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address glared back at the president in large white text. Mr. Trump has said he rewrote his convention speech following this past weekend’s shooting, although it’s still unclear what he plans to say. Mr. Miller declined to elaborate on the speech beyond saying the new version is “really powerful,” and that after the assassination attempt, which would “change anyone’s life,” he recognizes that “we need to come together in a time like this.”
While Mr. Trump’s speech may be a mystery, Americans have long memorized Lincoln’s famous speech – the second line of which lies hidden in the teleprompter feed: “Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.”
Staff writer Cameron Joseph contributed reporting from Milwaukee.
